In this paper, we present a land use model that represents multiple types of settlements, which allows to simulate multiple different urban change trajectories. We applied this model to Jiangsu Province, China, and assess the impact of projected urban development between 2015 and 2030 on cropland area and crop production.
Most land use models only represent one class of urban land, which makes it impossible to simulate different urbanization trajectories, such as densification and sprawl. Here we include multiple types of settlement systems responding to the same driver (population growth) (Fig.1).
Fig.1 Jiangsu land system map in 2015 (a) and simulated under S1 (b)
Model results show that different cropland protection policies lead to different urban change trajectories, some of which can accommodate population growth while also preserving crop production (Fig.2).
Fig.2 Services net changes in different scenarios. Net built-up land change (a), net cropland change (b) and net crop production change (c).
Please read the full paper from here.
key words: Land use change, Urban growth, Land use model, Food security, Cropland protection, Land use policy
Authors: Yuan Wang, Jasper van Vliet, Lijie Pu, Peter H. Verburg